The Fundamentals of Pokémon and Probability
A training plan focused on teaching you not only how to make the most of every game, but also to understand the probability behind some of the decisions you make, and how you calculate them yourself. Sessions are done over Discord & PTCGO.
Sessions Overview
Week 1 - Introduction
1 hourThis first session will be for us to get to know each other. We will decide on a deck for you to start working with. Next to being able to ask any questions you may have about the deck, we start identifying the different things we want to calculate. After this, if time permits, we will do some gameplay.
Week 3 - The hypergeometric distribution
1 hourIn this session we will go further with the concepts introduced earlier, and start calculating various probabilities. For example, opening with a certain card, X number of cards, mulligans... Topics: Hypergeometric distribution, starting with X cards, mulligans.
Week 2 - Probability basics
1 hourIn this session, I will introduce you to some probability concepts that we need in order to understand and calculate the probability attached to the scenarios we identified in the first lesson. Topics: Notation, probability rules, hypergeometric distribution.
Week 4 - Further applications
1 hourIn this session, we will combine many of the previous discussed topics, to calculate the probability of your worst start/best start. If time permits, we will also look at the Multivariate Hypergeometric distribution. Topics: Best/worst start, (Multivariate) Hypergeometric distribution.
Week 5 - +/- one card, and looking ahead
1 hourIn this final session, we will look at the marginal change in probability of playing one more, or one less of a given card in your deck. We round of the session with a brief look at additional topics that could be explored.